A novel valuation model for medical intervention development based on progressive dynamic changes that integrates Health Technology Assessment outcomes with early-stage innovation and indication-specific clinical success rates

Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

A Systems View Across Time and Space

Table 4 Phase success rates (%) used for modelling

	Generic	Indication-specific CVD*	Indication-specific Endo/Meta*
Registration	90	56	56
Phase III	62	62	54
Phase II	36	43	40
Phase I	59.52	46	52
Preclinical	62	62	62
Discovery	50	50	50

*Latest: combination of Wong, Siah, and Lo clinical phases and NICE registration data
Stage-specific transition success rates for medical intervention development obtained from publications by DiMasi, Sertkaya or Wong et al. Values indicate generic success rates by phase or latest indication-specific success rates by phase. The latest CVD and latest Endo/Meta correspond to the Cardiovascular and Endocrinological/Metabolic corresponds to the average of 11 years of data indicated in the supplementary material of Wong et al. (2018), with the registration rate corresponding to the UK NICE latest figures