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Table 6 SOM rNPVs for each market using real-world data potential market share (numbers in millions of USD)

From: A novel valuation model for medical intervention development based on progressive dynamic changes that integrates Health Technology Assessment outcomes with early-stage innovation and indication-specific clinical success rates

 Market penetration100%40%15%10%7%3%1%
a. Chemical entity-based intervention
Heart
 High costPre-phase 139.2115.6845.88153.9212.74471.17630.3921
Pre-phase 2204.4981.79630.673520.44914.31436.13472.0449
Pre-phase 3526.12210.44878.91852.61236.828415.78365.2612
USA
 Low costPre-phase 186.934.7613.0358.696.0832.6070.869
Pre-phase 2240.9196.36436.136524.09116.86377.22732.4091
Pre-phase 3556.84222.73683.52655.68438.978816.70525.5684
High costPre-phase 119.67.842.941.961.3720.5880.196
Pre-phase 2102.2440.89615.33610.2247.15683.06721.0224
Pre-phase 3263.06105.22439.45926.30618.41427.89182.6306
Europe
 Low costPre-phase 143.4517.386.51754.3453.04151.30350.4345
Pre-phase 2120.4648.18418.06912.0468.43223.61381.2046
Pre-phase 3278.42111.36841.76327.84219.48948.35262.7842
Diabetes
 High costPre-phase 13.561.4240.5340.3560.24920.10680.0356
Pre-phase 2106.9442.77616.04110.6947.48583.20821.0694
Pre-phase 3345.02138.00851.75334.50224.151410.35063.4502
USA
 Low costPre-phase 148.8719.5487.33054.8873.42091.46610.4887
Pre-phase 2141.5456.61621.23114.1549.90784.24621.4154
Pre-phase 3374.21149.68456.131537.42126.194711.22633.7421
High costPre-phase 11.870.7480.28050.1870.13090.05610.0187
Pre-phase 256.2822.5128.4425.6283.93961.68840.5628
Pre-phase 3181.5972.63627.238518.15912.71135.44771.8159
Europe
 Low costPre-phase 125.7210.2883.8582.5721.80040.77160.2572
Pre-phase 274.529.811.1757.455.2152.2350.745
Pre-phase 3196.9578.7829.542519.69513.78655.90851.9695
b. Biological entity-based intervention
Heart
 High costPre-phase 10000000
Pre-phase 212148.418.1512.18.473.631.21
Pre-phase 3366.48146.59254.97236.64825.653610.99443.6648
USA
 Low costPre-phase 140.4116.1646.06154.0412.82871.21230.4041
Pre-phase 2157.4362.97223.614515.74311.02014.72291.5743
Pre-phase 3397.2158.8859.5839.7227.80411.9163.972
High costPre-phase 10000000
Pre-phase 290.7536.313.61259.0756.35252.72250.9075
Pre-phase 3274.86109.94441.22927.48619.24028.24582.7486
Europe
 Low costPre-phase 130.3112.1244.54653.0312.12170.90930.3031
Pre-phase 2118.0747.22817.710511.8078.26493.54211.1807
Pre-phase 3297.9119.1644.68529.7920.8538.9372.979
abetes
 High costPre-phase 141.2116.4846.18154.1212.88471.23630.4121
Pre-phase 2205.9982.39630.898520.59914.41936.17972.0599
Pre-phase 3592.19236.87688.828559.21941.453317.76575.9219
USA
 Low costPre-phase 190.9636.38413.6449.0966.36722.72880.9096
Pre-phase 2242.4196.96436.361524.24116.96877.27232.4241
Pre-phase 3622.91249.16493.436562.29143.603718.68736.2291
High costPre-phase 120.618.2443.09152.0611.44270.61830.2061
Pre-phase 2102.9941.19615.448510.2997.20933.08971.0299
Pre-phase 3296.09118.43644.413529.60920.72638.88272.9609
Europe
 Low costPre-phase 145.4818.1926.8224.5483.18361.36440.4548
Pre-phase 2121.2148.48418.181512.1218.48473.63631.2121
Pre-phase 3311.45124.5846.717531.14521.80159.34353.1145
  1. a. rNPV calculations for different hypothetical SOM penetrations within the U.S.A and European markets for chemical entity based interventions for heart and diabetic disorders. The terminal market value used in the rNPV calculation was obtained by multiplying the SAM for the specific geography by the market penetrance percentage.
  2. b. rNPV calculations for different hypothetical SOM penetrations within the USA and European markets for biological-based interventions for heart and diabetic disorders. The terminal market value used in the rNPV calculation was obtained by multiplying the SAM for the specific geography by the market penetrance percentage.