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Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

A Systems View Across Time and Space

Table 6 SOM rNPVs for each market using real-world data potential market share (numbers in millions of USD)

From: A novel valuation model for medical intervention development based on progressive dynamic changes that integrates Health Technology Assessment outcomes with early-stage innovation and indication-specific clinical success rates

 

Market penetration

100%

40%

15%

10%

7%

3%

1%

a. Chemical entity-based intervention

Heart

 

High cost

Pre-phase 1

39.21

15.684

5.8815

3.921

2.7447

1.1763

0.3921

Pre-phase 2

204.49

81.796

30.6735

20.449

14.3143

6.1347

2.0449

Pre-phase 3

526.12

210.448

78.918

52.612

36.8284

15.7836

5.2612

USA

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

86.9

34.76

13.035

8.69

6.083

2.607

0.869

Pre-phase 2

240.91

96.364

36.1365

24.091

16.8637

7.2273

2.4091

Pre-phase 3

556.84

222.736

83.526

55.684

38.9788

16.7052

5.5684

High cost

Pre-phase 1

19.6

7.84

2.94

1.96

1.372

0.588

0.196

Pre-phase 2

102.24

40.896

15.336

10.224

7.1568

3.0672

1.0224

Pre-phase 3

263.06

105.224

39.459

26.306

18.4142

7.8918

2.6306

Europe

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

43.45

17.38

6.5175

4.345

3.0415

1.3035

0.4345

Pre-phase 2

120.46

48.184

18.069

12.046

8.4322

3.6138

1.2046

Pre-phase 3

278.42

111.368

41.763

27.842

19.4894

8.3526

2.7842

Diabetes

 

High cost

Pre-phase 1

3.56

1.424

0.534

0.356

0.2492

0.1068

0.0356

Pre-phase 2

106.94

42.776

16.041

10.694

7.4858

3.2082

1.0694

Pre-phase 3

345.02

138.008

51.753

34.502

24.1514

10.3506

3.4502

USA

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

48.87

19.548

7.3305

4.887

3.4209

1.4661

0.4887

Pre-phase 2

141.54

56.616

21.231

14.154

9.9078

4.2462

1.4154

Pre-phase 3

374.21

149.684

56.1315

37.421

26.1947

11.2263

3.7421

High cost

Pre-phase 1

1.87

0.748

0.2805

0.187

0.1309

0.0561

0.0187

Pre-phase 2

56.28

22.512

8.442

5.628

3.9396

1.6884

0.5628

Pre-phase 3

181.59

72.636

27.2385

18.159

12.7113

5.4477

1.8159

Europe

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

25.72

10.288

3.858

2.572

1.8004

0.7716

0.2572

Pre-phase 2

74.5

29.8

11.175

7.45

5.215

2.235

0.745

Pre-phase 3

196.95

78.78

29.5425

19.695

13.7865

5.9085

1.9695

b. Biological entity-based intervention

Heart

 

High cost

Pre-phase 1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pre-phase 2

121

48.4

18.15

12.1

8.47

3.63

1.21

Pre-phase 3

366.48

146.592

54.972

36.648

25.6536

10.9944

3.6648

USA

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

40.41

16.164

6.0615

4.041

2.8287

1.2123

0.4041

Pre-phase 2

157.43

62.972

23.6145

15.743

11.0201

4.7229

1.5743

Pre-phase 3

397.2

158.88

59.58

39.72

27.804

11.916

3.972

High cost

Pre-phase 1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pre-phase 2

90.75

36.3

13.6125

9.075

6.3525

2.7225

0.9075

Pre-phase 3

274.86

109.944

41.229

27.486

19.2402

8.2458

2.7486

Europe

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

30.31

12.124

4.5465

3.031

2.1217

0.9093

0.3031

Pre-phase 2

118.07

47.228

17.7105

11.807

8.2649

3.5421

1.1807

Pre-phase 3

297.9

119.16

44.685

29.79

20.853

8.937

2.979

abetes

 

High cost

Pre-phase 1

41.21

16.484

6.1815

4.121

2.8847

1.2363

0.4121

Pre-phase 2

205.99

82.396

30.8985

20.599

14.4193

6.1797

2.0599

Pre-phase 3

592.19

236.876

88.8285

59.219

41.4533

17.7657

5.9219

USA

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

90.96

36.384

13.644

9.096

6.3672

2.7288

0.9096

Pre-phase 2

242.41

96.964

36.3615

24.241

16.9687

7.2723

2.4241

Pre-phase 3

622.91

249.164

93.4365

62.291

43.6037

18.6873

6.2291

High cost

Pre-phase 1

20.61

8.244

3.0915

2.061

1.4427

0.6183

0.2061

Pre-phase 2

102.99

41.196

15.4485

10.299

7.2093

3.0897

1.0299

Pre-phase 3

296.09

118.436

44.4135

29.609

20.7263

8.8827

2.9609

Europe

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

45.48

18.192

6.822

4.548

3.1836

1.3644

0.4548

Pre-phase 2

121.21

48.484

18.1815

12.121

8.4847

3.6363

1.2121

Pre-phase 3

311.45

124.58

46.7175

31.145

21.8015

9.3435

3.1145

  1. a. rNPV calculations for different hypothetical SOM penetrations within the U.S.A and European markets for chemical entity based interventions for heart and diabetic disorders. The terminal market value used in the rNPV calculation was obtained by multiplying the SAM for the specific geography by the market penetrance percentage.
  2. b. rNPV calculations for different hypothetical SOM penetrations within the USA and European markets for biological-based interventions for heart and diabetic disorders. The terminal market value used in the rNPV calculation was obtained by multiplying the SAM for the specific geography by the market penetrance percentage.
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