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Table 8 SOM rNPVs for each market using real-world data potential market share (numbers in millions of USD) using progress dependent dynamic risk rates (pd-DRR) for valuations

From: A novel valuation model for medical intervention development based on progressive dynamic changes that integrates Health Technology Assessment outcomes with early-stage innovation and indication-specific clinical success rates

 Market penetration100%40%15%10%7%3%1%
a. Chemical entity-based intervention
Heart
 High costPre-phase 12.771.1080.41550.2770.19390.08310.0277
Pre-phase 222.398.9563.35852.2391.56730.67170.2239
Pre-phase 365.9426.3769.8916.5944.61581.97820.6594
USA
 Low costPre-phase 19.223.6881.3830.9220.64540.27660.0922
Pre-phase 227.2810.9124.0922.7281.90960.81840.2728
Pre-phase 370.4328.17210.56457.0434.93012.11290.7043
High costPre-phase 11.390.5560.20850.1390.09730.04170.0139
Pre-phase 211.24.481.681.120.7840.3360.112
Pre-phase 332.9713.1884.94553.2972.30790.98910.3297
Europe
 Low costPre-phase 14.611.8440.69150.4610.32270.13830.0461
Pre-phase 213.645.4562.0461.3640.95480.40920.1364
Pre-phase 335.2114.0845.28153.5212.46471.05630.3521
Diabetes
 High costPre-phase 1NegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegative
Pre-phase 210.74.281.6051.070.7490.3210.107
Pre-phase 342.0116.8046.30154.2012.94071.26030.4201
USA
 Low costPre-phase 15.092.0360.76350.5090.35630.15270.0509
Pre-phase 215.356.142.30251.5351.07450.46050.1535
Pre-phase 346.2718.5086.94054.6273.23891.38810.4627
High costPre-phase 1NegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegative
Pre-phase 25.632.2520.84450.5630.39410.16890.0563
Pre-phase 322.118.8443.31652.2111.54770.66330.2211
Europe 
 Low costPre-phase 12.681.0720.4020.2680.18760.08040.0268
Pre-phase 28.083.2321.2120.8080.56560.24240.0808
Pre-phase 324.359.743.65252.4351.70450.73050.2435
b. Biological entity-based intervention
Heart
 High costPre-phase 1NegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegative
Pre-phase 212.464.9841.8691.2460.87220.37380.1246
Pre-phase 345.5718.2286.83554.5573.18991.36710.4557
USA
 Low costPre-phase 13.631.4520.54450.3630.25410.10890.0363
Pre-phase 217.356.942.60251.7351.21450.52050.1735
Pre-phase 350.0520.027.50755.0053.50351.50150.5005
High costPre-phase 1NegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegativeNegative
Pre-phase 29.353.741.40250.9350.65450.28050.0935
Pre-phase 334.1713.6685.12553.4172.39191.02510.3417
Europe
 Low costPre-phase 12.721.0880.4080.2720.19040.08160.0272
Pre-phase 213.025.2081.9531.3020.91140.39060.1302
Pre-phase 337.5415.0165.6313.7542.62781.12620.3754
Diabetes
 High costPre-phase 13.031.2120.45450.3030.21210.09090.0303
Pre-phase 221.658.663.24752.1651.51550.64950.2165
Pre-phase 372.6629.06410.8997.2665.08622.17980.7266
USA
 Low costPre-phase 19.783.9121.4670.9780.68460.29340.0978
Pre-phase 226.5410.6163.9812.6541.85780.79620.2654
Pre-phase 377.1530.8611.57257.7155.40052.31450.7715
High costPre-phase 11.510.6040.22650.1510.10570.04530.0151
Pre-phase 210.824.3281.6231.0820.75740.32460.1082
Pre-phase 336.3314.5325.44953.6332.54311.08990.3633
Europe
 Low costPre-phase 14.891.9560.73350.4890.34230.14670.0489
Pre-phase 213.275.3081.99051.3270.92890.39810.1327
Pre-phase 338.5715.4285.78553.8572.69991.15710.3857
  1. a. rNPV calculations for different hypothetical SOM penetrations within the U.S.A and European markets for chemical entity based interventions for heart and diabetic disorders. The terminal market value used in the rNPV calculation was obtained by multiplying the SAM for the specific geography by the market penetrance percentage
  2. b. rNPV calculations for different hypothetical SOM penetrations within the U.S.A and European markets for Biological based interventions for heart and diabetic disorders. The terminal market value used in the rNPV calculation was obtained by multiplying the SAM for the specific geography by the market penetrance percentage