Skip to main content
Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship

A Systems View Across Time and Space

Table 8 SOM rNPVs for each market using real-world data potential market share (numbers in millions of USD) using progress dependent dynamic risk rates (pd-DRR) for valuations

From: A novel valuation model for medical intervention development based on progressive dynamic changes that integrates Health Technology Assessment outcomes with early-stage innovation and indication-specific clinical success rates

 

Market penetration

100%

40%

15%

10%

7%

3%

1%

a. Chemical entity-based intervention

Heart

 

High cost

Pre-phase 1

2.77

1.108

0.4155

0.277

0.1939

0.0831

0.0277

Pre-phase 2

22.39

8.956

3.3585

2.239

1.5673

0.6717

0.2239

Pre-phase 3

65.94

26.376

9.891

6.594

4.6158

1.9782

0.6594

USA

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

9.22

3.688

1.383

0.922

0.6454

0.2766

0.0922

Pre-phase 2

27.28

10.912

4.092

2.728

1.9096

0.8184

0.2728

Pre-phase 3

70.43

28.172

10.5645

7.043

4.9301

2.1129

0.7043

High cost

Pre-phase 1

1.39

0.556

0.2085

0.139

0.0973

0.0417

0.0139

Pre-phase 2

11.2

4.48

1.68

1.12

0.784

0.336

0.112

Pre-phase 3

32.97

13.188

4.9455

3.297

2.3079

0.9891

0.3297

Europe

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

4.61

1.844

0.6915

0.461

0.3227

0.1383

0.0461

Pre-phase 2

13.64

5.456

2.046

1.364

0.9548

0.4092

0.1364

Pre-phase 3

35.21

14.084

5.2815

3.521

2.4647

1.0563

0.3521

Diabetes

 

High cost

Pre-phase 1

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Pre-phase 2

10.7

4.28

1.605

1.07

0.749

0.321

0.107

Pre-phase 3

42.01

16.804

6.3015

4.201

2.9407

1.2603

0.4201

USA

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

5.09

2.036

0.7635

0.509

0.3563

0.1527

0.0509

Pre-phase 2

15.35

6.14

2.3025

1.535

1.0745

0.4605

0.1535

Pre-phase 3

46.27

18.508

6.9405

4.627

3.2389

1.3881

0.4627

High cost

Pre-phase 1

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Pre-phase 2

5.63

2.252

0.8445

0.563

0.3941

0.1689

0.0563

Pre-phase 3

22.11

8.844

3.3165

2.211

1.5477

0.6633

0.2211

Europe

 
 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

2.68

1.072

0.402

0.268

0.1876

0.0804

0.0268

Pre-phase 2

8.08

3.232

1.212

0.808

0.5656

0.2424

0.0808

Pre-phase 3

24.35

9.74

3.6525

2.435

1.7045

0.7305

0.2435

b. Biological entity-based intervention

Heart

 

High cost

Pre-phase 1

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Pre-phase 2

12.46

4.984

1.869

1.246

0.8722

0.3738

0.1246

Pre-phase 3

45.57

18.228

6.8355

4.557

3.1899

1.3671

0.4557

USA

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

3.63

1.452

0.5445

0.363

0.2541

0.1089

0.0363

Pre-phase 2

17.35

6.94

2.6025

1.735

1.2145

0.5205

0.1735

Pre-phase 3

50.05

20.02

7.5075

5.005

3.5035

1.5015

0.5005

High cost

Pre-phase 1

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Pre-phase 2

9.35

3.74

1.4025

0.935

0.6545

0.2805

0.0935

Pre-phase 3

34.17

13.668

5.1255

3.417

2.3919

1.0251

0.3417

Europe

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

2.72

1.088

0.408

0.272

0.1904

0.0816

0.0272

Pre-phase 2

13.02

5.208

1.953

1.302

0.9114

0.3906

0.1302

Pre-phase 3

37.54

15.016

5.631

3.754

2.6278

1.1262

0.3754

Diabetes

 

High cost

Pre-phase 1

3.03

1.212

0.4545

0.303

0.2121

0.0909

0.0303

Pre-phase 2

21.65

8.66

3.2475

2.165

1.5155

0.6495

0.2165

Pre-phase 3

72.66

29.064

10.899

7.266

5.0862

2.1798

0.7266

USA

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

9.78

3.912

1.467

0.978

0.6846

0.2934

0.0978

Pre-phase 2

26.54

10.616

3.981

2.654

1.8578

0.7962

0.2654

Pre-phase 3

77.15

30.86

11.5725

7.715

5.4005

2.3145

0.7715

High cost

Pre-phase 1

1.51

0.604

0.2265

0.151

0.1057

0.0453

0.0151

Pre-phase 2

10.82

4.328

1.623

1.082

0.7574

0.3246

0.1082

Pre-phase 3

36.33

14.532

5.4495

3.633

2.5431

1.0899

0.3633

Europe

 

Low cost

Pre-phase 1

4.89

1.956

0.7335

0.489

0.3423

0.1467

0.0489

Pre-phase 2

13.27

5.308

1.9905

1.327

0.9289

0.3981

0.1327

Pre-phase 3

38.57

15.428

5.7855

3.857

2.6999

1.1571

0.3857

  1. a. rNPV calculations for different hypothetical SOM penetrations within the U.S.A and European markets for chemical entity based interventions for heart and diabetic disorders. The terminal market value used in the rNPV calculation was obtained by multiplying the SAM for the specific geography by the market penetrance percentage
  2. b. rNPV calculations for different hypothetical SOM penetrations within the U.S.A and European markets for Biological based interventions for heart and diabetic disorders. The terminal market value used in the rNPV calculation was obtained by multiplying the SAM for the specific geography by the market penetrance percentage
Back to article page